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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/19 10:50
Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Tuesday; Corn Flat-Lower
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures
are 2 to 3 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to a penny lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures
are 2 to 3 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is weaker at midday with the S&P 230 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 25 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
mixed with crude off .90 and natural gas up .06. Livestock trade is mostly
higher with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off
60.00.
CORN:
Futures are flat to a penny lower at midday with action holding Monday's
move toward the upper end of the range with little other fresh news. Ethanol
margins will narrow a little if corn holds the rebound but unleaded remains at
the top of the range for blenders' margins. Basis continues to hold the recent
range for now. Cooler weather after the recent rains will slow remaining
planting and emergence this week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed
planting at 76% versus 70% on average and 39% emerged versus 37% on average. On
the July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.71, which we closed
back above Monday, with the recent high at $4.87 1/2 as resistance above the
market.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade consolidating
the Monday surge on U.S. statements about China ag purchases with meal products
consolidating as well. Meal is flat to 1.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points
lower. South America will continue control the short-term export market
post-harvest with fresh China commitments expected to be in new crop. Basis
should remain flat with crush margins holding the range. Planting and emergence
remain ahead of average at 67% versus 53% and 32% versus 23%, respectively. On
the July contract, chart support is the 20-day moving average at $11.92, where
we find the 20-day moving average, with resistance the contract high at $12.40.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis leading as
we continue to rebound off the lows. Continued condition declines add support
as we get closer to early harvest with some acres being cut in Oklahoma/Texas.
Warmer weather should return into the next week with rains likely too late to
boost potential much on the Plains. Heading is at 71% versus 58% average; good
to excellent is at 27%, down one percentage point, and 43% poor to very poor.
Spring wheat is 73% planted versus 66% on average and 39% emerged versus 34% on
average with more open weather in the north. Matif wheat is lightly higher. On
the KC July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $6.91, which we held
just above, with the fresh high at $7.50 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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