October 18, 2018
Portland Price Trends
10-01-17 01-01-18 09-01-18 010-11-18 10-18-18
#1 SWW (bu) 5.35 5.32 6.05 6.23 6.25
White Club 5.40 5.32 6.05 6.23 6.25
DNS 14% 7.41 7.52 6.84 6.89 6.85
HRW 11.5% 5.79 5.60 6.53 6.48 6.56
#2 Corn (ton) 141.00 157.00 156.00 163.00 164.00
#2 Barley 125.00 128.00 140.00 140.00 140.00
Wheat...Weaker Chicago futures were met by a stronger white wheat basis
this week, holding cash bids at the marketing year high of $6.25. Markets
remain relatively flat into December as exporters work to generate nearby
selling. Hard red winter bid structures also show relatively flat numbers
through November, with dark northern spring flat through December.
Weekly Sales...USDA reported a resurgence in U.S. wheat export demand for
the past week, driven primarily by sales of hard red spring and white wheat.
Overall export sales came in at 17.5 mb, right at the four-week average, and
places year-to-date sales at 445 mb; 15% behind a year ago and 19% under the
five-year average total. Hard red spring booked a marketing year high of 10.2
mb, placing current year commitments at 139 mb which is 3% below a year ago
and 6% under average. White wheat had another relatively strong week, coming
in at 4 mb to put sales at 113 mb; 8% behind last year but 22% above the five
year average. Hard red winter sales continue to languish, with just 1.1 mb
sold last week to put sales at 125 mb; 35% behind both a year ago and average.
Top Buyers...Bangladesh was a big buyer of hard red spring wheat last week
and was top buyer for the week with 6.6 mb. Japan and Unknown both came in at
the 2.8 mb level, followed by Ital with 1.3 mb and the Philippines at 1.2 mb.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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